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I am not a religious person, but some wisdom can be found in the bible. One of them is the concept that prophecy is for the fools. You see it al

According to USFDA, a combination product is one composed of any combination of a drug and device; biological product and device; drug and biological product

most everyday when it comes to investing: "War is unavoidable" someone says. "Oil prices will continue to rise" says another. History is full of

; or drug, device, and biological product and fixed dose combination would include two or more combinations of drug.

Examples of combination products may in

managers (and for that manner policy makers) who took risks when the unexpected happened. But yet, all the clues to what was about to happen we

lude drug-coated devices, drugs packaged with delivery devices in medical kits, and drugs and devices packaged separately but intended to be used together.

re looked backed in hindsight.

In his excellent book, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Taleb talks a

here is enormous increase in the number of combination products entering the market in the recent years. Combination products have proven advantages but fixe

out the concept of a black swan. Black swan is an unpredictable event that defies prediction.

The disturbing property of a black swan is that i

d dose combinations are still in the process of convincing regulatory authority on their advantages over the single ingredient formulations.

Combination pro

t's unexpectedness creates the conditions for it to occur in the first place. That happens because of the simple fact that if you would expect s

ucts have become life saving products for the pharmaceutical companies who doesn’t have many innovative molecules in their product pipeline and have been inc

uch a catastrophic event as 9/11, you would do everything to avoid it. Even the old parable "expect the unexpected" won't do any good. If you ex

easingly used in the product life cycle management. Even the companies having product patents are trying to extend their product life cycle through the combi

ect it, it is no longer unexpected.

Another disturbing element, is what is called the "hindsight bias". This means that looking back, you ratio

nation products and maximize the revenues. But the companies involved in this practice are overlooking that they are burdening the patients both economically

nalize every event that happened as likely to have occurred. On hindsight, it was obvious company A would collapse and you'd lose all your share

and physically. They need to rightly judge the benefits of the combination products and they have to even look at the risks involved when combining the produ

s. Why you didn't sell your stocks before? Maybe you'd attribute that to unfortunate luck or lack of skills or intelligence on your behalf or bo

ts. Some of the combination products were well accepted by physicians while others suffered. Companies involved in development of combination products are fi

h. The problem is that we get a false sense of security in our ability to predict events.

If you'd look back in history, you'd notice that most

ding difficulty in defining their combination products and facing various challenges from selecting a combination to marketing it.

Following aspects would a

of the greatest revolutions of mankind were not predicted. Who would have predicted the internet revolution? Who would have predicted 9/11? The

dd to the challenges in developing combination products:

Which markets to tap where the combination products can do fairly well?
Which combination prod

"hindsight bias" mentioned before would lead you to believe those were logic steps in our progress.

Here is something that most people in the

cts are meaningful and rational?
Which therapeutic categories to select?
Which Combinations can address unmet needs of the patients?
Do combin

finance industry don't talk about and you should know: Analysts, paid to give recommendations of whether a certain stock is a good buy or sell,

tions increase the patient compliance?
What would be the developing cost?
How to tackle the risks encountered during combination product developmen

ave in a certain way predict the future. It's always nice looking back at their predictions and analyzing their success rate (their prediction a

t?

As combination products don't fit into the traditional categories of drugs, medical devices, or biological products, the USFDA is in the process of devel

gainst what actually happened) to discover some disturbing facts.

What do you think is their actual success rate? 80% ? 70%? what is a good suc

ping new procedures for reviewing their safety, efficacy and quality.

Professional from academic institutions, pharmaceutical industries, health care indust

cess rate anyway? I'd say if you are willing to accept analysts' predictions, you'd expect to get more than 50%. After all 50% means that you co

y and representatives from various regulatory agencies are working out to design the regulatory requirements for manufacture and sale of combination products

ld match their performance by tossing a coin and deciding upon that whether the market would rise or fall.

You'd be surprised to know that on a

.

As there is an increasing trend of the combination products companies manufacturing such products should be able to tackle the problems involved in the de

verage, the analyst has no better shot at predicting what would happen in the stock market more than you by flipping a coin. This is not somethi

elopment. They need to be wiser in analyzing the market trends and the regulatory requirements.

Companies that provide selfless information through particip

ng that happened only this year. It happened in the past and would probably continue to happen as people still struggle to be fooled by prophecy

tion in industry events and feedback to regulatory authorities would be able to face the challenges and will be successful in developing combination products

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